Development of an integrated model for adaptive management of urban passenger flows on rail transport in real time
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.33216/1998-7927-2026-300-2-107-118Keywords:
adaptive control, passenger flows, urban rail transport, real time, short-term forecasting, multi-criteria optimization, simulation modeling, dispatchingAbstract
The article proposes an integrated model of adaptive management of urban passenger flows in railway transport in real time, focused on reducing delays, reducing congestion at nodes and improving the quality of service. The methodology combines spatial-network analysis, short-term demand forecasting, multi-criteria optimization, simulation testing of control scenarios and a self-adaptation circuit based on the results of actual decision implementation. The transport system is formalized as a directed graph with time-varying parameters of throughput and saturation, and the selection of control actions is carried out according to an integral criterion that takes into account operational, service and energy indicators. To take into account uncertainty, scenario testing of alternatives was used before implementation in dispatching practice. Unlike local approaches, the proposed architecture ensures coordination of the forecast, optimization and execution levels in a single decision-making cycle. The results of the model experiment showed a steady improvement of key indicators compared to the baseline: reduction of average delays, reduction of the share of overloaded nodes, improvement of service stability and reduction of specific energy consumption. The sensitivity analysis to changes in the weights of the criteria confirmed the robustness of the conclusions obtained within practically relevant parametric variations. It is substantiated that the greatest effect is achieved under conditions of proactive response to increasing saturation and synchronization of information impacts on passengers with operational adjustment of traffic regimes. The practical significance of the work lies in the possibility of implementing the model in dispatch centers of urban railway systems as a tool for increasing the reliability of the transportation process, service quality and resource efficiency. The proposed approach can be used as the basis for a digital twin of a transport node integrated with streaming sensor data, passenger information systems and platforms supporting dispatching decisions. The perspective of further research is to scale the model to multimodal networks and take into account long-term infrastructure constraints. Separately, it is advisable to further investigate the impact of extreme events on the stability of the operational control loop.
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