Assessment of the risks of introducing promising technical solutions in transport
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.33216/1998-7927-2021-268-4-82-87Keywords:
decision making, risk, innovation, research, risk management, implementation, rail transportAbstract
The article analyzes possible ways of investment for the development of production technologies on the example of railway transport and the related decision-making process. One of the methods that allows you to quantify the risks of implementation, namely to model random variables to calculate the characteristics of their distributions, is the Monte-Carlo method. Monte-Carlo modeling allows you to build a mathematical model for a process with indeterminate parameter values, and, knowing the probabilistic distributions of process parameters, as well as the relationship between parameter changes (correlation), to obtain a distribution of project profitability. Monte-Carlo simulation has several stages. The first stage in the process of risk analysis is the creation of a forecast model. This model determines the mathematical relationships between numerical variables that relate to the forecast of the selected financial indicator. The second stage is to simulate the forecast model. A fairly large amount of random scenarios is generated, each of which corresponds to a certain value of cash flows. The generated scenarios are collected together and statistically processed to determine the proportion of scenarios that correspond to a negative NPV value. The ratio of such scenarios to the total number of scenarios provides an assessment of investment risk. For an illustrative example, consider promising technologies, namely methods for optimizing the frictional interaction of the wheel with the rail, which is the basis for the safety of rolling stock. They are applicable to rail transport and are theoretically cost-effective, but in practice the solution of these issues is associated with a certain degree of risk, which is currently difficult to predict and take into account, so we will be based on methods of optimizing frictional interaction of wheels with rails. Based on the results of simulation, the Monte Carlo method was used to create a computer program "Program for assessing risks and economic security of the implementation of innovative projects", a certificate of registration of copyright for the work was received. The results of simulation are the forecasting of the most and least risky technical solutions for implementation in railway transport, aimed at reducing them.
References
1. Инновации в промышленности. Справочник экономиста. К.: 2004. – №2. – 94 с.
2. Христиановский В.В. Экономический риск и методы его измерения / В.В. Христиановский, В.П. Щербина // Донецк ДонНУ, 2000. – 197 с.
3. Бузько І.Р. Стратегічне управління інвестиціями та інноваційна діяльність підприємства / І.Р. Бузько, О.В. Вартанова, Г.О. Голубенко // Монографія. – Луганськ, 2002. – 176 с.
4. Елохин А.Н. Анализ и управление риском: Теория и практика. – 2-е изд. – М.: ПолиМЕдиа, 2002. – 192 с.
5. Ноженко В.С. Поліпшення триботехнічних характеристик двоточкового контакту «колесо-рейка» активацією поверхонь: дис. … канд. техн. наук : 05.22.07 / В.С. Ноженко, Східноукр. нац. ун-т ім. В. Даля. – Сєвєродонецьк, 2016. – 152 с.
6. Щелоков Я.М. Энергетическое обследование: справочное издание. / Я.М. Щелоков, Н.И. Данилов, Екатеринбург: УрФУ, 2011. – 243 с.
7. Колтынюк Б.А. Инвестиции. Учебник. – СПб.: Изд-во «Михайлова В.А.», 2003. – 850 с.
8. Ковтанец М.В. Применение экспертного оценивания для принятия технического решения [Електронний ресурс] / М.В. Ковтанец, Е.А. Кравченко, Н.Н. Горбунов, Г.А. Бойко, О.В Просвирова // Наукові вісті Далівського університету: зб. наук. праць. – 2012. – № 7. – Режим доступу: http://www.nbuv.gov.ua/e-journals/Nvdu/2012_7/Tehno/12kmvptr.pdf. – Назва з екрану.
9. Gorbunov M. Reducing the wheel-rail system wear intensity with thermomechanical impact / M. Gorbunov, M. Kovtanets, G. Bureika, T. Kovtanets // Proceedings of the 23nd International Scientific Conference. Transport Means 2019, 02-04 October, Palanga, Lithuania. 2019. – P. 1260-1265.
10. Gorbunov M. Experimental study of the limit-maximum adhesion coefficient / M. Gorbunov, M. Kovtanets, T. Kovtanets / Proceedings of 24th International Scientific Conference. Transport Means 2020, September 30 - October 02, Kaunas, Lithuania. 2020. – P. 382-386.
11. Gorbunov M. Innovative risks of introducing advanced technical solutions in transport / M. Gorbunov, V. Nozhenko, M. Kovtanets, O. Porkuyan / Proceedings of 24th International Scientific Conference. Transport Means 2020, September 30 - October 02, Kaunas, Lithuania. 2020. – P. 97-101.
12. Gorbunov M. Research to improve traction and dynamic quality of locomotives / M. Gorbunov, V. Pistek, M. Kovtanets, O. Nozhenko, S. Kara, P. Kučera // JVE International LTD. Vibroengineering Procedia. – 2017. – Vol. 13, ISSN 2345-0533. – P. 159-164.
