Analysis of the resource potential of secondary energy resources in the region: assessment of the raw material base of secondary energy resources and the “security gap”

Abstract

The growing energy demand and the environmental consequences of fossil fuel use create the need to implement sustainable regional energy solutions. One of the key directions is the use of secondary energy resources, particularly waste-to-energy recovery, which combines the principles of the circular economy with improved efficiency of energy systems. In the context of the European Green Deal and the Energy Strategy of Ukraine until 2050, assessing the economic feasibility of secondary energy resources becomes especially relevant at the regional level, where the raw material base is formed and the balance between waste generation, its energy potential, and community benefits is determined.

An analysis of waste flow dynamics in the Ivano-Frankivsk region for 2010–2023 revealed a significant but unrealized resource potential. The predominance of landfilling over recycling indicates a linear management model that generates economic losses and environmental risks. Despite the increase in the recovery rate to 78.2% in 2023, the volume of incineration remains minimal. A particular threat is posed by hazardous waste of classes I–III, whose share is relatively small, yet the absence of thermal treatment facilities creates a persistent “security gap.”

Structural analysis showed that in 2023 the total volume of waste doubled, while new categories, particularly combustion residues (554.6 thousand tons), demonstrate potential for the development of secondary energy resources. The growth of textile and chemical waste confirms the existence of a stable raw material base for implementing waste-to-energy technologies. Additional anthropogenic pressure related to migration processes and changes in consumption patterns has intensified the burden on the waste management system, highlighting the need for decentralized SER solutions. The assessment made it possible to quantify the scale of underutilized energy potential and identify priorities for infrastructure modernization. The results substantiate the strategic necessity of transitioning from a landfill-based model to energy recovery, which will ensure environmental safety, reduce financial costs, enhance energy resilience, and form the foundation of regional energy autonomy in Ukraine.